Presidential Election Prediction Model 2024. Developed with the assistance of a team of political scientists led by andrew gelman of columbia university, our model calculates kamala harris’s and donald trump’s probabilities of winning. At exactly midnight on tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle.
One to forecast the national popular vote, and another to predict the electoral college. The chart illustrates pollyvote’s projected electoral vote distribution for the upcoming 2024 u.s.